OECD Economic Outlook
昨日に引き続き、今日もOECDのネタ。
OECDがEconomic Outlookを発表している。9月に発表になったInterim Economic Assessmentよりも長い、2011年までの経済見通し。
- OECD Economic Outlook No. 86, November 2009
- Recovery still too timid to halt rising unemployment, says OECD Economic Outlook
- Tokyo Centre - OECD
日・米・欧それから中国の経済も見通しについて。簡単にこんなふうにまとめられている。
China is leading the global recovery, helped by its limited direct exposure to the financial crisis and by a massive stimulus package.
The US is recovering with the help of government stimulus measures, a rebound in world trade underpinned by increasing demand from large emerging-market economies, stockbuilding by businesses and stabilisation of the housing market. US gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 2.5% in 2010 and a further 2.8% in 2011.
Euro area activity will benefit from the same growth drivers as the US, but work-sharing schemes and other factors which have helped maintain many jobs during the crisis may also weaken the rate of job creation over the coming months. As a result, household confidence is likely to remain weak which could sap the strength of the recovery. The Euro area economy is projected to grow next year by 0.9% and by 1.7% in 2011.
Japan should benefit from strong growth in the rest of Asia, but weak domestic demand will continue to limit activity. Deflation is expected to linger. The economy is expected to grow by 1.8% and 2.0% in 2010 and 2011 respectively.
日本を含め、どの地域よりも前回のEconomic Outlookよりも2010年以降の素早い回復を見込んでいる。 でも、GDPデフレーターのマイナスは2011年でも継続する予測。
