World Economic Outlook Update
IMFのWorld Economic Outlook UpdateとGlobal Financial Stability Report Updateが発表になっている。
IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update -- Restoring Confidence without Harming Recovery, July 2010
Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) -- Market Update -- July 2010
世界の各国・各地域の今年と来年の経済成長率はこのような感じ。
世界全体では、今年は0.4%の上方修正、来年は変わらずとなっている。日・米と途上国は上方修正されているが、欧州は据え置き。
今後の景気刺激についてはこんな一文がある。
Most advanced economies do not need to tighten before 2011, because tightening sooner could undermine the fledgling recovery, but they should not add further stimulus.
G20で指摘されたように、most advanced economiesの中に日本は入っていないんだろうが、何となく先行きがよく見えない米国なんかはこの文言からくる雰囲気の影響を受けそうな気がする。
日本に関しては、プレスコンファレンスの中にこんなやり取りがあった。
MS. ATKINSON: Thank you. We have a question online, "Would you support moves to depreciate the yen in order to counter deflation in Japan?" I think that's for Olivier.
MR. BLANCHARD: I will just make one remark and then maybe leave the floor to Jorg.
Our assessment is that the yen at this stage is roughly correctly valued. It's roughly in line with fundamentals and therefore we do not think that the depreciation of the yen is needed at this point.
MR. DECRESSIN: In our view, monetary policy in Japan is presently appropriate and we expect deflationary pressures to ease. Should that not be the case then there are other ways to combat inflation through more extensive interventions by the bank of Japan. For example, you know, extending the terms of maturity to over six months of the funds that the Bank of Japan is supplying, or for the bank of Japan to purchase a wider range of assets. In other words, there are other ways to go about fighting deflation rather than a yen depreciation.
円は適正レートであり、為替市場に介入することはない。デフレに対応する手段は他にもある、今のところ日銀は適切な金融政策をしていると思うけれど...。というところか。
